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Introduction

If you’re thinking of creating a startup, you’re probably going to look for promising external factors like astrological signs to determine whether a gamble into entrepreneurialism is worth the trouble. And right now, the signs look good. VCs are startup friendly, hardware costs are low, and Google is buying companies for 1.65 billion dollars. The problem, however, is that first time entrepreneurs don’t necessarily succeed or fail because of outside socio-economic forces.

If you’re a first time business owner, a paper by the Social Science Research Network on skill vs. luck in entrepreneurship says you, my friend, are more likely to stumble than succeed:

“Our empirical model indicates that entrepreneurs who succeeded in a prior venture (i.e., started a company that went public) have a 30% chance of succeeding in their next venture. By contrast, first-time entrepreneurs have only an 18% chance of succeeding and entrepreneurs who previously failed have a 20% chance of succeeding.”

Now, don’t become too disheartened. Even though the odds say you’ll mess up on your first go (and even your second), just like walking, talking, or even snowboarding, business success comes through persistence and basically knowing more than you know now. This is why failures do better than newbies and also the reason why you (especially if you’re young and without attachments) need to get your feet wet as soon as you can. To help convince you of the values of getting one under your belt, we’ve gathered the following five reasons why your first startup, regardless of whether it’s a success or not, is more valuable than you think because of the lessons you’ll learn.

引言

如果正考虑开始创业，你很可能会查天时观地利，以此判断会否得不偿失。（这么想的话）现在看来时机不错：VC们青睐创业公司，硬件成本越来越低，Google还刚花16.5亿美金买了家公司（htmlor注：Youtube）…… 不过，首次创业的成功或失败，并不一定取决于这些外界的社会经济因素。

假如你是初次创业，SSRN的一篇文章《创业的技巧和运气》（Skill vs. Luck in Entrepreneurship）会告诉你，朋友，你跌倒的可能性很高：

“我们的经验模型表明，前一次取得成功（即开创公司并上市）的创业者有30%的机会再次创业成功。相形之下，初次创业者的成功机会只有18%，而前一次失败的创业者，成功机会是20%。”

即使真如这些数字所说，你的第一次创业就会陷入困境（甚至第二次也会），也不要太灰心。就像走路、说话甚至滑雪一样，商业成功往往来自于执着和不断的学习、进步——这也是败将比新兵更容易成功的原因——因此，你应当尽可能的先实践起来（尤其是年轻且无负担时）。我们列举以下五个理由，只为说明一个道理：第一次创业不论成功与否，都比你想象的有价值的多——因为你将获得宝贵的经验。

1) It Prepares You for How Much Work Is Involved

Many startups fail because the founders were not mentally prepared to work the ridiculous hours necessary to make a business succeed. Basically, founders who are unprepared for the rigors of a startup are less likely to make it. At the Startup Success 2006 panel discussion, one of the audience members asked if the founders were able to work from 8-5. Reid Hoffman, founder of LinkedIn, sort of sighed and had this to say:

“Before you get profitable and establish yourself, you’re basically walking dead and you have to realize it’s more of a marathon than a sprint.”

He then went on to say that you can expect to work over 70 hour work weeks to get the product out the door. If you’ve run any type of long distance race, then you’ll understand the importance of mental focus. For example, if you’re mentally ready to run five miles, and at the fifth mile you’re told to run five more, that’s much harder than mentally preparing for ten miles at the start. The only way to train for a marathon is by running, and the only way to train for a startup is by starting.

一、它会让你知道成功需要多少工作量

许多创业公司失败，是因为创业者没有对成功所必需的、破天荒的工作时间做好思想准备。基本上，对创业的严酷性缺乏准备的人很难成功。在创业成功2006讨论会（Startup Success 2006 Panel Discussion）上，当一名观众问到创业者能否朝九晚五的上班时，LinkedIn创始人Reid Hoffman很有感慨的说：

“在盈利和确立领先地位之前，你基本行走在死亡边缘。你必须意识到这是一场马拉松，不是100米短跑。”

接下来他又说，你们可以想象一下为了产品上线每周工作70多个小时的感觉。如果有过长跑经验，你就会理解精神集中的重要性。举例来说，假如你做好了跑5英里的精神准备，跑够了5英里却被告知要再跑5英里，这时你的精神和心理状态跟开始就准备要跑10英里截然不同。练习马拉松的唯一手段就是不断的跑，练习创业的不二法门就是开始去做。