1997 Passage 5

 　　Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rearview mirror and a faulty steering wheel.

　　Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double-digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.

　　It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America's inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and is expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.

　　Economists have been particularly surprised by favourable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America's, have little productive slack. America's capacity utilisation, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment — the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.

　　Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have upended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.

67. From the passage we learn that ________.
　　[A] there is a definite relationship between inflation and interest rates
　　[B] economy will always follow certain models
　　[C] the economic situation is better than expected
　　[D] economists had foreseen the present economic situation

68. According to the passage, which of the following is TRUE?
　　[A] Making monetary policies is comparable to driving a car.
　　[B] An extremely low jobless rate will lead to inflation.
　　[C] A high unemployment rate will result from inflation.
　　[D] Interest rates have an immediate effect on the economy.

69. The sentence "This is no flash in the pan" (line 5, paragraph 3) means that ________.
　　[A] the low inflation rate will last for some time
　　[B] the inflation rate will soon rise
　　[C] the inflation will disappear quickly
　　[D] there is no inflation at present

70. The passage shows that the author is ________ the present situation.
　　[A] critical of
　　[B] puzzled by
　　[C] disappointed at
　　[D] amazed at

重点词汇：

monetary /5mQnitEri/ （金融的，货币的）←monet+ary，monet=money，-ary形容词后缀。

precise /pri5sais/ （精确的）即pre+cise，pre-在前，cise(=cide)词根“切”，于是“在前面切”→知道切多少的→精确的。参suicide（自杀），2002年Text 4。He knew the precise psychological moment when to say nothing.他知道那个心理上的精确瞬间，那时什么都不该说。

liken /5laikEn/ （把……比作）←like+(e)n动词后缀。

windscreen /5windskri:n/ （挡风玻璃）←wind+screen。windscreen wipers — the eyelashes of rain 汽车风档上的刮水器——雨的睫毛。

poll /pEul/ （v.n.投票；民意测验）原指“人头”(head)，“根据人头统计选票”。poll表“人头”可这样记：p=b（因为对称字母可替换），o=a（因为元音字母可替换），故poll=ball，人的头像“球”。Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right?你有没有过这种感觉，即我们举行选举的唯一理由就是弄清民意测验是否准确？

slack /slAk/ （v.n.a.松散；萧条）。In marriage, a man becomes slack and selfish, and undergoes a fatty degeneration of his moral being.婚后男人变得懒散自私，经历着道德生命的脂肪变性。

thrilling /5WriliN/ （激动的；颤抖的）←thrill+ing，thrill（使激动；令人激动的事），-ing形容词后缀。Everybody who plays an instrument, even a little, understands music in a difficult way from somebody who has never felt the thrill of making music himself.每个演奏乐器的人，哪怕只会一点点，理解音乐的方式都与从未感受过自己奏出音乐的激动的人不同。

unfortunately /Qn5fC:tjunEtli/ （不幸地）即un+fortun(e)+ate+ly，un-否定前缀，fortune（幸运）见2003年Text 3，-ate后缀，-ly后缀。反义词为fortunately（幸运地）←fortun(e)+ate+ly。去ly即为二者的形容词形式：unfortunate（不幸的）←un+fortun(e)+ate；fortunate（幸运的）←fortun(e)+ate。Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils.时间是了不起的教师，但不幸的是，它杀死所有的学生。Fortunately psychoanalysis is not the only way to resolve inner conflict. Life still remains a very effective therapist.幸运的是，心理分析并非消除内心冲突的唯一方法，生活依然是十分有效的治疗专家。Do not speak of your happiness to one less fortunate than yourself.不要向不如你幸运的人讲述你的幸福。If you are too fortunate, you will not know yourself. If you are too unfortunate, nobody will know you.若过于幸运，就不会认识自己；若过于不幸，就没人会认识你。

upend /Qp5end/ （v.颠倒；打倒）←up+end。

难句解析：

①Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" of "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth.
▲在第一个句子中，其主干为Much of the language..., makes it sound like...。used to describe monetary policy是用于修饰language的定语，后面的such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" of "a touch on the brakes"是对前面的language进行进一步说明。第二个句子是一个简单句。
△如上所述的句子主干被确定之后，句子就不难理解了。为了简化这个句子以便于理解，可以先把such as引导的部分忽略不看，那样整个句子就比较好掌握了。注意make it sound like a precise science当中it指代前面提到的monetary policy。

②Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rearview mirror and a faulty steering wheel.
▲这句话承接前面陈述的原因。hence后面只是一个名词词组，中心词是the analogy，后面that引导定语从句修饰前面的analogy。with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rearview and a faulty steering wheel是介词词组修饰前面的名词car。注意此句没有谓语动词，只是一个名词性的短语。
△理解这句话的关键在于hence的用法。hence的意思是“for this reason，因此，所以”，主要用于书面语，是副词，可以连接一个完整的句子，也可以只跟一个名词。例如：Baby found a pot of paint, hence all the marks on the wall。另外liken A to B意思是“把A与B相比，把A比作B”。

③This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.
▲这是一个并列句，前后用分号隔开两个子句，是递进关系。第一句话中，no可以用not a代替。后面一个句子中inflation是主语，使用了被动语态的现在完成时态。lower是表语，than expected和in Britain and America，以及前面的over the past couple of years都是介词短语作状语。
△首先应该注意到那个分号，可以把分号前后分别作为一个简单句单独对待。另外在后面一个句子中，应该抓住inflation has been... lower...这个基本结构（被动语态，现在完成时态）。flash in the pan是习语，意思是a sudden success that will not be repeated，接近汉语中的“昙花一现”。

④Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America's, have little productive slack.
▲这是一个主从复合句，连词since连接了两个句子。主句的主干是Economists have been... surprised by...。原因状语从句的主干是conventional measures suggest that...，代词that引导了宾语从句作为suggest的宾语。在这个宾语从句中，and especially America's相当于especially America's economy，是前面主语both economies的同位语，用于强调美国经济。
△这里应该首先注意到since这个连词，然后分别理解两个句子，再把它们放在一起，这个句子的意思就迎刃而解了。另外注意suggest不是“建议”的意思，而应该是“显示，指示”。

⑤The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have upended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.
▲在第一个句子里面，主干是... explanation is... a little defective。这是一个主语+系动词+表语结构。副词unfortunately是插入语，作状语。第二个句子的主干并不复杂：... economists argue that...，代词that后面是宾语从句。这个宾语从句的基本结构为structural changes... have upended... models...，其中structural changes是主语，have upended是现在完成时态的谓语，models是宾语。这个宾语models后面是一个that引导的限定性定语从句，修饰models。
△第一个句子相对比较简单。第二个句子看着很长，但是只要明确了句子的主干，就很容易把整个句子看明白。可以先甩掉宾语从句中的那个定语从句(that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation)，这样这个句子结构就显得简单多了。然后再接这个定语从句，整句的意思就浮出水面了。另外注意upend一词由动词短语end up衍生而来，意为“结束，推翻”。

试题解析：

67. [C] 意为：经济形势比预想的好。
　　第三段指出，它（指：平均通货膨胀率）也比多数预测者预测的低。《经济学家》杂志每月调查的经济学家小组称：1995年美国平均通货膨胀率会达3.5％左右，但是，8月份它实际降至2.6％，全年也不过3％左右；在英国和日本，平均通货膨胀率比上年底预测的低0.5个百分点（或：半个百分点）。而且，在过去几年里一直是如此(this is no flash in the pan)：在英美两国，平均通货膨胀率一直比预测的要低。
　　A意为：通货膨胀与利率有直接关系。第一段第二句明确指出：利率与通货膨胀间的关系是不确定的。
　　B意为：经济（的运行）总是遵循某些模式（或：规律）。第一段指出，“使经济软着陆”“使经济刹车”，人们经常使用这样的词来形容货币政策的作用，听起来它似乎是一门严谨的学问。事实远非如此（Nothing could be further from the truth.它根本就不是一门严谨精确的学问）。下文从持续低的通货膨胀率的意外的形势来说明了经济运行难以预测。
　　D意为：经济学家们预测到了目前的经济形势。相反，正如第四段第一句所指出的，经济学家对目前有利的通货膨胀率始料未及。另请参阅上文分析。

68. [B] 意为：极低的失业率会导向通货膨胀。
　　第四段指出，从传统的（衡量）标准来看，英美两国（特别是美国）的经济生产并没有滑坡(productive slack)，例如：美国的设备（能力）利用率(capacity utilisation)今年初达到历史最高水平，其失业率已低于多数正常失业率所允许的数字——过去认为：失业率低于正常失业率时通货膨胀率就开始上升(take off)。
　　A意为：制定货币政策如同开车。根据第一段第四、五句，在政策的变化对经济起实际作用之前，会有很长而难以确定的(variable)时间差（lag意为：滞后性）。所以，许多人把货币政策实施过程比作驾驶一辆遮住挡风玻璃、后视镜已断裂、方向盘有毛病的汽车。换言之，他们认为，货币政策的制定和实施有很大程度的不可预测性或盲目性。可见，A表达的意思不确切。
　　C意为：通货膨胀导致高失业率。注意，在这里，inflation一词前没有修饰词，际上，过低的失业率会导致通货膨胀率的上升。参阅上文分析。
　　D意为：利率对经济有直接而迅速的影响。参阅上文分析。

69. [A] a flash in the pan意为：昙花一现，偶然出现的情况。
　　参阅第67题题解。
　　[B]、[C]、[D]均不对。

70. [D] 意为：对……感到惊奇，认为……不可思议。
　　本文主要评述了目前良好的经济形势，它是由持续低的通货膨胀率造成的，是始料未及的。作者强调了目前形势的始料不及的一面（尤其是第二、三、四段的描述）。
　　A意为：批评。
　　B意为：因……感到困惑（不解）。
　　C意为：对……感到失望。

全文翻译：

　　很多用来描述货币政策的词，如“引导经济软着陆”，“触动经济刹车”，听起来像是一门精确的科学。事实远非如此。利率和通货膨胀之间的关系难以确定。在政策改变对经济产生影响前会有一段较长时间且变化不定的后滞期。因此，才会有人将货币政策的指导比做是驾驶一辆带有黑色挡风玻璃、后视镜破碎及方向盘失灵的汽车。
　　尽管有这么多不利因素，中央银行家们似乎对近来的形势有了不少值得夸耀的东西。西方七大工业国去年的平均通货膨胀率降至仅2.3％，接近30年来的最低水平。今年7月略微升高到2.5％。这远远低于许多国家在70年代和80年代早期经历的两位数的膨胀率。
　　这也低于许多预测者预测的数字。1994年底，每月接受《经济学家》意见调查的一组经济学家指出，美国在1995年的平均通货膨胀率将达到3.5％。实际上，8月份就降到了2.6％。而且有望达到全年平均仅为3％。去年年底，英国和日本的通货膨胀率实际上比预测的要低半个百分点。这不是昙花一现。在过去几年里，英国和美国的通货膨胀率始终低于预测水平。
　　经济学家对英美两国有利的通胀率感到特别诧异，因为传统的计量方法表明两国经济，特别是美国经济几乎没有生产萧条的时候。比如，美国的生产力利用率在今年前段时间达到了历史最高水平，失业率（8月份为5.6％）已降到低于对自然失业率的大多数估测——过去，当比率低于自然失业率时，通货膨胀率早已迅速上升。
　　为何通货膨胀如此的和缓？可惜的是，这最令人震惊的解释有一点缺陷。一些经济学家认为，世界经济结构强有力的变化已经推翻了那个以经济增长和通货膨胀的历史上相互关联为基础的旧的经济模式。