Over the past month, China has unveiled a slew of reforms to its stock markets, bringing them closer into line with those of London, New York and Hong Kong, one of the country's “special administrative regions”.

过去一个月内，中国宣布了一系列的股市改革措施，以求更接近伦敦、纽约和中国“特别行政区”之一香港的股市。

After years on the drawing board and several false starts, regulators finally introduced margin trading, short-selling and stock index futures – three tools that will help traders profit from falling as well as rising markets.

在经过多年筹划和数次“发令枪”误响之后，中国监管机构终于推出了融资、融券交易和股指期货——这三种工具将帮助交易者获利于下跌和上涨两种走向的市场。

The reforms are not only milestones for the country's capital markets – they are the latest steps towards Shanghai's goal of becoming an international financial centre by 2020.

这些改革措施不仅是对中国资本市场具有里程碑意义的事件，还是为实现上海到2020年成为国际金融中心的目标而出台的最新举措。

For most financial professionals, the idea that the city will be in a position to rival Hong Kong or London within 10 years is absurd.

对大多数金融专业人士而言，上海在十年内可以叫板香港或伦敦的想法是荒唐的。

For a start, it is largely shut off from international financial flows – and will remain so until China abandons its strict capital controls. Just as crucially, the city lacks an independent legal system on which foreign investors can depend.

首先，中国基本上与国际金融流动隔离——在中国放弃严格的资本管制之前，这种局面不会改变。同样重要的是，上海缺乏外国投资者可以依赖的独立的法律体系。

Despite all that, Shanghai should not be underestimated.

尽管存在这些不足，但人们也不应该低估上海。

“I think it may overtake London within five years,” says Dean Owen, Shanghai-based chief representative for Newedge, the French futures brokerage, which has a joint-venture with Citic Group in China.

法国期货经纪商Newedge驻上海首席代表迪安?欧文(Dean Owen)表示：“我认为上海可能在5年内超过伦敦。”Newedge与中国中信集团(Citic Group)成立了一家合资公司。

“A strong factor in this is that China has a centralised government that can make policy decisions very quickly compared with the US,” Mr Owen says. “They've set themselves a goal – 2020 – and they'll achieve it. No doubt at all.”

欧文表示：“一个重要的原因是，与美国相比，中国是中央集权政府，能够非常迅速地进行政策决策。他们为自己制定了2020年的目标，他们将实现这一目标，这毫无疑问。”

Shanghai has come a long way over the past decade. It now hosts the world's second-largest stock market by market capitalisation after New York.

上海在过去10年已经取得了很大进展。按市值计算，它拥有全球第二大的股市，仅次于纽约。

It has also become the centre for many of the country's other financial activities, including interbank lending, bond trading and foreign exchange.

上海还成为中国内地其它金融活动的中心，包括银行间借贷、债券交易和外汇交易。

Yet while Shanghai is entrenched as the domestic financial hub of mainland China, its role in international finance remains minimal. Only slowly have mainland regulators allowed foreign groups to participate in the domestic financial system, or domestic groups to venture overseas.

然而，尽管确立了中国内地金融中心的地位，但上海在国际金融中的角色仍微乎其微。在允许外国机构参与本国金融体系或国内机构投资海外方面，中国内地监管机构行动迟缓。

On one significant definition of a global financial centre – being a place where foreigners choose to do deals with other foreigners – Shanghai is still on the starting blocks.

按照全球金融中心的一个重要定义——外国人选择与其他外国人进行交易的地方——来评判，上海仍处于起点。

If it is to challenge Hong Kong and Singapore as a regional financial centre by 2020 – let alone rival London or New York – regulators will need to move much faster than they have done in recent years.

上海要想到2020年挑战香港和新加坡的区域金融中心的地位（且不提伦敦或纽约），监管机构的动作将有必要比最近几年快得多。

Take the stock market. In 2003, China introduced a scheme to allow qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII) to buy Chinese securities. But seven years later, fewer than 100 foreign groups have been approved and less than $20bn of investment quotas have been awarded.

以股市为例。2003年，中国推出了合格境外机构投资者(QFII)机制，允许他们购买中国内地股票。但7年后，中国批准的QFII投资者不到100家，授予的投资额度不到200亿美元。

Of course, policymakers have every reason to move cautiously when it comes to financial liberalisation. China's government bond futures market collapsed in 1995, just two years after it started, as a lack of regulatory oversight led to rampant market manipulation.

当然，就金融自由化来说，政策制定者完全有理由谨慎行事。1995年，中国国债期货市场仅仅在成立两年后就发生了崩盘，原因是缺乏监管导致了疯狂的市场操纵行为。

A cautious approach towards reforms is one reason why China's financial system emerged from the global financial crisis relatively unscathed.

谨慎推进改革是中国金融体系相对未受全球金融危机影响的一个原因。

Few believe Beijing is in any rush to open up its capital account – the number one precondition for Shanghai to become an international contender. Officials say the goal is to make the renminbi “more convertible”, but they provide little detail on how or when that might happen.

很少有人相信中国政府会匆忙开放其资本账户——这是上海成为国际竞争者的首要条件。官员们表示，目标是提高人民币的可兑换程度，但他们很少提供如何或何时实现这一目标的细节。

The legal system is another big obstacle. Experts say a sophisticated financial services industry requires a much more transparent, predictable and fair legal system.

法律体系是另一个主要障碍。专家们表示，一个成熟的金融服务业需要一个更加透明、可预测和公平的法律体系。

“China is still playing catch-up to get its laws up to the level of a market economy,” says Douglas Clark, partner at the Shanghai office of law firm Lovells. He reckons the 2020 goal is a “fantasy”.

英国路伟律师事务所(Lovells)上海办公室合伙人马锦德(Douglas Clark)表示：“中国仍在追赶，让本国法律体系达到市场经济的水平。”他认为2020年的目标是一个“幻想”。

One big reason that Hong Kong emerged as a global financial centre is its robust legal system, which was established by its former rulers, the British.

香港成为全球金融中心的一个重要原因，是其前任统治者英国建立的健全的法律体系。

“It takes more than 10 years to develop the ability to deal with complex [financial] cases,” says Mr Clark.

马锦德表示：“中国需要10年以上时间才能发展处理复杂（金融）案件的能力。”

Then there is Shanghai's lack of experienced financial professionals – the lifeblood of any financial hub. The city government is working hard to recruit talented professionals trained overseas and has even doled out tax breaks to lure some senior figures.

此外，上海缺乏经验丰富的金融专业人士——这是所有金融中心的命脉。上海市政府正努力招募在海外受过训练的专业人才，甚至提供税收减免以吸引一些高级人才。

But professionals accustomed to the lifestyle of Hong Kong or New York may need some convincing. China has a punitive 45 per cent income tax and cannot offer the same level of education and healthcare.

但习惯于香港或纽约生活方式的专业人士可能需要一些说服。中国拥有45%的惩罚性的个人所得税，而且不能提供同等水平的教育和医疗服务。

Ultimately, for Shanghai to stand a chance of becoming a genuine international financial centre within a decade, China will need to transform its economy and legal system at an unprecedented speed.

最终，上海要想有可能在十年内成为真正的国际金融中心，中国需要以空前的速度改变其经济和法律体系。

If Beijing is serious about the 2020 deadline, prepare for a wild ride.

如果中国政府对2020年的截止期限是认真的话，那就准备迎接动荡的过程吧。