新美国梦:拒当房奴 租房更好

德银证券(Deutsche Bank Securities)的分析师预计，到2010年底前，将有2,100万户美国家庭在抵押贷款上的债务超过房屋净值。如果其中有五分之一的家庭违约，对银行和投资者造成的损失就可能会超过4,000亿美元。这个损失占经济的比例大约与八十年代末、九十年代初美国储贷危机时遭受的损失相当。
Analysts at Deutsche Bank Securities expect 21 million U.S. households to end up owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth by the end of 2010. If one in five of those households defaults, the losses to banks and investors could exceed $400 billion. As a proportion of the economy, that's roughly equivalent to the losses suffered in the savings-and-loan debacle of the late 1980s and early 1990s.
　
不过，反过来说，房主从巨额债务中松了口气，这可以帮助抵消失业率上升带来的痛苦，让消费者的口袋里有些钱。
The flip side of those losses, though, is massive debt relief that can help offset the pain of rising unemployment and put cash in consumers' pockets.
　　
据数据提供商LPS Applied Analytics估计，美国有480万户家庭至少3个月没有缴纳月供；这笔额外的现金流每月总计可能会达到约50亿美元；长期来看，这些钱将比奥巴马政府经济刺激计划提供的税项减免还要多。
For the 4.8 million U.S. households that data provider LPS Applied Analytics estimates haven't paid their mortgages in at least three months, the added cash flow could amount to about $5 billion a month -- an injection that in the long term could be worth more than the tax breaks in the Obama administration's economic-stimulus package.
　　
专门从事房地产和加州经济事务的咨询公司Beacon Economics的索恩伯格(Christopher Thornberg)说，这是一种隐含的刺激，这些人越早一点摆脱债务，经济就可以越早恢复健康、再次向前发展。
'It's a stealth stimulus,' says Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics, a consulting firm specializing in real estate and the California economy. 'The quicker these people shed their debts, the faster the economy is going to heal and move forward again.'
　　
奥巴马政府向银行施压迫使它们降低抵押贷款还款，进而让人们保住自己的房屋。而随着人们逐渐不再以违约为耻，政府在实施上述举措时可能会面临一场艰难的战斗。一些分析师说，这并不一定是正确的做法，特别是如果它阻止人们摆脱沉重的债务、以全新的面貌重新开始的时候。
As the stigma of abandoning a mortgage wanes, the Obama administration could face an uphill battle in its effort to keep people in their homes by pressuring banks to cut their mortgage payments. Some analysts argue that's not always the right approach, particularly if it prevents people from shedding onerous debts and starting a fresh.
　　
亚利桑那大学研究抵押贷款违约的法学教授怀特说(Brent White)，这些计划的结果常常是导致房主作出并非最有利于自己经济利益的决定。
'The effect of these programs is often to lead homeowners to make decisions that are not in their economic best interests,' says Brent White, a law professor at the University of Arizona who has studied mortgage defaults.