Why then has this happened? It is not an accident. On the contrary, as Mr Anderson notes, the government has worked hard to achieve this result.

 

 

 

那么，为什么会发生这种情况呢？这不是偶然的。相反，正如安德森指出的，为取得这一成果，中国政府付出了不少努力。

 

In normal circumstances, powerful economic forces work against an increasingly undervalued real exchange rate. As David Hume, the great Scottish philosopher, argued, the monetary mechanism is one way of achieving this outcome. At a fixed exchange rate, a current account surplus not offset by a corresponding voluntary capital outflow will generate an increase in the monetary base. That should generate a credit expansion, excess demand, a rise in the domestic price level and an appreciation in the real exchange rate.

 

在正常情况下，强大的经济力量会纠正日趋低估的实际汇率。伟大的苏格兰哲学家大卫?休谟(David Hume)曾指出，货币机制是实现这种结果的一种方式。在汇率固定的情况下，如果没有相应的自愿资金外流，来抵消经常账户盈余，就会造成货币基础的增长。这应会造成信贷扩张、需求过度、国内价格水平提高及实际汇率上升。

 

Overheating, in short, is not the problem, but rather the natural solution to an undervalued real exchange rate. But, as Mr Anderson points out, China’s economy is sufficiently large, sufficiently closed, sufficiently regulated and sufficiently labour-abundant to prevent this effect from working through.

 

简言之，经济过热不是问题，而是实际汇率被低估的“天然解决方案”。但正如安德森所指出的，中国经济够大、够封闭、管制够严、劳动力也够丰富，足以防止形成这种效应。

 

The People’s Bank of China has been able to sterilise the monetary impact of the massive purchases of foreign currency it has undertaken to keep the exchange rate down (see charts). Moreover, because China’s overall savings are so high and its capital market sufficiently segmented from that of the rest of the world, domestic interest rates are about one and a half percentage points below those currently earned on its reserves.

 

为将汇率保持在低水平，中国央行买进了大量外汇，但它一直能够冲销大规模买入外汇对货币政策的影响（见图表）。此外，由于中国的总体储蓄水平非常之高，资本市场与世界其它地区充分割裂，因而其国内利率水平较其目前的外汇储备回报率约低1.5个百分点。

 

Sterilisation – the sale of domestic securities to mop up the excess liquidity generated by official intervention in foreign currency markets – is not merely feasible, but even highly profitable, if one is prepared to ignore the risk of a large ultimate capital loss. In the very long run, the spending generated by low domestic interest rates is indeed likely to produce excess demand and inflation, particularly if the economy and the financial system are liberalised. But there is little sign that this is at all imminent.

 

冲销即通过发售国内票据，消除官方干预外汇市场产生的多余流动资金，这不仅仅是可行的，甚至还极为有利可图 —— 如果愿意忽视最终遭受巨额资本损失的风险。从远期看，低国内利率产生的支出，确实可能造成过度的需求和通胀，特别是在经济和金融体系实现了自由化的情况下。不过，几乎没有迹象显示这样的情形迫在眉睫。

 

The discussion in last week's column concluded that there is a strong case for the Chinese government to absorb the surplus savings domestically, in the interests of the Chinese people. But the discussion here concludes that they can prevent such an adjustment for a very long time if they wish to do so.

 

 

上周专栏得出的结论是，中国政府有很好的理由从中国人民的利益出发，吸收国内多余的储蓄。不过，本文得出的结论是，只要他们愿意，就可以在很长时期内不进行这种调整。

 

So the authorities have a choice. What then should it be? If they should decide to reduce the current account surplus, should they allow faster appreciation of the nominal exchange rate or overheating and faster inflation? And how should they choose to expand demand? These will be the subjects of next week’s final column in this series.

 

因此，中国政府可以选择。那么，应该怎么选呢？如果他们决定减少经常账户盈余，那么他们是否应该允许名义汇率更快上升，或是经济过热和通胀加速？要扩大需求，他们又该作出何种选择呢？这些将是下周本系列专题最后一篇探讨的主题。

 

出处：[DEAF] Why China Wants to Keep Renminbi Pinned Down?