宅男恋爱公式：你有多少潜在女友？
来源：纽约时报
2010-01-15 11:16
The Drake equation is used to estimate the number of highly evolved civilizations that might exist in our galaxy. The equation was developped in 1961 by Dr.Frank Drake at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory.
德雷克方程式是用来估计银河系内拥有高度发展文明的星球数量的。1961年，美国国家无线电天文台的弗兰克·德雷克博士创造出了这个方程式。
The equation is generally specified as:
这个方程式写作：
N＝R*×Ep×Ne×F1×Fi×Fc×L
N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible;
我们能够与之沟通的、有高度文明的外星球数量
R* = the average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy
银河系中每年新星球“出生率”
Ep = the fraction of those stars that have planets
能生长植物的星球所占的比率
Ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
每颗这样的星球上能维持生命的植物的平均数目
F1 = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point
其中真正能出现生命痕迹的星球比率
Fi = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life
其中能出现高等生命的星球比率
Fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
拥有向宇宙中发射可识别信号的能力的文明在以上星球中所占的比率
L = the length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.
那样的高等文明生物发射可识别心信号的时间
Where extraterrestrial civilizations may be rare, there is something that is seemingly rarer still: A girlfriend. What might the approach employed in the estimation of the number of alien civilizations tell us about the number of potential girlfriends for me? A somewhat less scientific question, I admit, but one of substantial importance.
虽说外星生命及其稀少，但还是有一种生命比它更稀少：女朋友。这个能估量外星文明的公式该怎么用来估量我的潜在女友呢？我承认这是件不怎么科学的测试，但对我来说有着相当大的重要性。
The parameters are redefined as follows:
这样的话，参数就要重新设置一下
N= The number of potential girlfriends
潜在女友的数量
R* = The rate of formation of people in the UK(tion growth)
英国的人口增长率
Ep = The fraction of people in the UK who are women
女性在总人口中所占比率
Ne = The fraction of women in the UK who live in Londo
n居住在伦敦的女性在所有女性中的比率
Fe = The fraction of women in London who are age-appropriate
年龄合适的女性在其中所占的比率
Fi = The fraction of age=appropriate women in London with a university education
年龄合适并有大学文凭的女性在其中所占比率
Fc = The fraction of age-appropriate, university-educated women in London who I find physically attractive
年龄合适、有大学文凭、我觉得长得好看的女性人数所占比率
L = The length of time in years that I have been alive thus making an encounter with a potential girlfriend possible
我能遇见一个这样的女孩所需要的时间
If we plug in the above values we get: N=10,510
将以上所有的值相乘，我们得到的答案是：10，510
What this means is that on a given night there is greater than a 1 in 1000 chance that I will meet an attractive woman between the age of 24 and 34 with a university degree. Of course I have to take into account the fraction of women who will find me attractive, the fraction of women who will be single and the fraction of women who I will get along with. Including such factors would greatly reduce the above figure of 10,510. So the chance is 1 in 258,000, about 100 times better than finding an alien civilization. Still not bad.
这意味着，某一天晚上出去，我遇上一个24岁到34岁之间、大学毕业的理想女孩的概率大于千分之一。当然我还得考虑加进觉得我长得好看的女孩的比率、单身女性的比率、我能与其相处甚欢的女性人数所占比率。加进这些因素后，概率会大大降低，变成258，000分之一，比起找到外星文明的概率高了100倍，还不坏。
Make of this what you will. It might cheer you up, it might depress you. I guess it depends on what you thought your chances were before reading this.
对这个结果的看法就因人而异了。你或许觉得挺高兴，或许觉得挺郁闷。我想这得取决于你之前对这个几率的估计。
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