In business, as in life, good leaders hope for the best and plan for the worst. There’s a reason that experts refer to the regular expansion and contraction of the economy as the business cycle. 

Even producers of the most recession-proof products—toiletries, beer, funeral services—need to consider how rising and falling consumer sentiment will affect their bottom line.

Of course, timing the next downturn is easier said than done. So as we head into a new year, we reached out to the Fast Company Impact Council—a leadership group of 200 founders, executives, and creatives—to gauge how some of the smartest and most innovative people in business are thinking about a possible recession.
当然,预测下一次衰退说起来容易做起来难。因此我们在步入新一年的时候,联系了《快速公司》影响委员会(Fast Company Impact Council),以便获悉商业中最聪明最富创新精神的一拨人是如何看待可能发生的经济衰退的。这个委员会是由200名创始人、执行官和创意官组成的领导集团。

About 4 in 10 respondents told us they expect the global economy in 2020 to perform about the same. But remarkably, nearly 45% predicted that the next 12 months would be worse for business. Only 16% said that the global economy would be better.

Impact Council members were more like-minded about the timing of the next downturn. While 21% predicted a recession would hit in 2020, the majority (54%) said it would likely arrive in 2021, after the next presidential election. About 15% responded that the next recession would come in 2022. Only 1 in 10 said the economy would continue to grow until 2023 or later.