US stocks are on track their worst December since the Great Depression. Financial stocks are already in a bear market. The central bank for central banks thinks it’s only going to get worse.
“It was not the first, and it will not be the last,” said Claudio Borio, head of the monetary and economic department at the Bank of International Settlements. “It was just another bump along the narrow path of monetary policy normalization.”
国际清算银行的财政及经济部主管 Claudio Borio 说：“这不是第一次，也不会是最后一次。这只是货币政策正常化这条狭窄道路上的又一次颠簸。”
He’s referring to interest rates returning to normal, as is now underway in Europe and continued in the US today with another rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
Among the other causes for concern for investors: the inverting yield curve (which many take to be an indicator of an imminent recession), Brexit, the weakness of European banks, and the ongoing trade war between the US and China.
Borio also noted that a lot of low-quality corporate debt “hovers like a dark cloud over investors,” which Quartz warned about in relation to the revelation that 90% of the debt issued by private-equity firms are the worst possible junk bonds.
“Faced with unprecedented initial conditions—extraordinarily low interest rates, bloated central-bank balance sheets and high global indebtedness, both private and public—monetary policy normalization was bound to be challenging especially in light of trade tensions and political uncertainty,” Borio added. “The recent bump is likely to be just one in a series.”
After a year that saw a massive increase in risk and uncertainty, putting fears that the longest bull market in US history is coming to an end, investors might be wary to hear that 2019 is looking even worse. But Borio’s remarks did have one silver lining.
Research conducted by Borio, Mathias Drehmann, and Dora Xia comparing recessions and financial cycles suggests that, at least since the early 1980s, economic downturns have typically been preceded by financial booms rather than higher interest rates. This suggests that we shouldn’t fear that inverted yield curve.
Borio、Mathias Drehmann和Dora Xia三位主导了一项研究，他们对比了数次经济衰退和金融周期，然后发现：至少在1980年代以后，经济下行之后基本都会是一次金融繁荣，而不会是利率升高。这告诉我们，其实不用太担心反向的收益曲线。