The world may be coming together on what needs to be done to pull the economy out of crisis. There is much common ground, if not a consensus, in many areas. This is not a sufficient condition for eventual recovery. But it is a first and necessary one.
关于需要做些什么才能让经济摆脱危机，全世界或许正在走到一起。在许多领域，即使没有达成共识，人们的立场也是大致相同的。这并非经济最终复苏的充分条件，但却是先决和必要条件之一。
Take financial regulation. The de Larosière report, the UK's Turner review and early drafts of the G20 communiqué suggest much the same. In the future, the financial sector will be safer and duller. Banks will probably be smaller, regulation tougher and required capital higher. Lower profitability will take care of the bonus issue by itself. Whether such changes would be “good” or “bad” is a separate question. The important point is that international agreement is relatively uniform. As a result, no country's banking system will enjoy advantages over another.
以金融监管为例。法国前央行行长拉罗西埃尔(Jacques de Larosière)的报告，英国金融服务管理局主席特纳(Adair Turner)的评论，以及20国集团(G20)会议公报的初稿，意思都大同小异。将来，金融业将更加安全，更加索然无味。银行规模可能会缩小，监管将更加严厉，资本要求将更高。收益率下降将自然而然地解决奖金问题。这些变化是“好”是“坏”则是另一码事。要点在于，国际协定是相对一致的。因此，没有一个国家的银行体系会相对于另一个国家具有优势。
The same is true of monetary policy. The world's major central banks have all cut interest rates to zero, or close. Many are now engaged in quantitative easing. This is risky if done alone as it can weaken the currency and give rise to criticism of “beggar-thy-neighbour” devaluations. But if everyone does it, the world can gain from the extra monetary boost.
货币政策亦是如此。全球各主要央行均已将利率降至零或近零的水平。许多央行都采用了定量宽松政策。如果某个国家独自使用这种政策，将是危险的，因为它会使货币走弱，引发对“以邻为壑”贬值政策的批评。但如果各国都在使用，世界可能会从额外的货币刺激中获益。
Finally, there is fiscal policy. Countries are opening their wallets. Even Germany's stimulus is only slightly smaller than the US's as a percentage of output. Europe's biggest tightwad is, in fact, France. And as even the International Monetary Fund now believes that countries should spend more – and the IMF's director is a Frenchman – Paris may well come round too.
最后还有财政政策。各国正打开钱包。以占产出的比例计算，即使是德国的刺激力度也仅略小于美国。欧洲最吝啬的其实是法国。鉴于就连国际货币基金组织(IMF)如今也认为各国应增加开支——IMF总干事是一位法国人——巴黎很可能也会改变主意。
There is still a long haul ahead. There will be setbacks, and the world is headed for a stiff recession, at least. Whatever happens, the required deleveraging will take years. But there are also grounds for hope.
未来仍然任重而道远。其间将会有波折，至少，世界正走向一场严重的衰退。不管发生什么，所需的去杠杆化过程将需要数年时间。但希望之光依然存在。
