Coca-Cola's Huiyuan offer sparks concern


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The world's biggest beverage maker intended to acquire Beijing-based Huiyuan for HK$17.9 billion, or HK$12.20 per share - almost triple Huiyuan's closing price of HK$4.14 last Friday.

Although Huiyuan Juice was pleased with Coca-Cola’s $2.4 billion bid on Wednesday, most netizens polled by a major Chinese web portal opposed the deal.

By Thursday afternoon, an online poll conducted by Internet portal had registered the participation of 108,754 netizens, with 89,169 or 81.99 percent of them opposed to the deal and 90,106, or 82.85 percent, suspecting the move could remove one more of China’s home-grown name brands.

Only 23,992, or 22.06 percent, of those polled were optimistic about Huiyuan's outlook after the acquisition, and as many as 65,615, or 60.33 percent, of the netizens showed a pessimistic attitude.

In a news release on its website on Wednesday, Coca-Cola said it "is seeking to further develop its beverage business” through the acquisition, “with the objective of offering consumers a wide range of beverage choices".

"Huiyuan is a long-established and successful juice brand in China and is highly complementary to the Coca-Cola China business," said Muhtar Kent, president of Coca-Cola.

Coca-Cola said it has accepted irrevocable undertakings from Huiyuan’s three shareholders for acceptance of the offers, in aggregate representing approximately 66 percent of the Huiyuan shares.

The companies are awaiting approval from authorities to proceed with the deal.

Brenda Lee, Coca-Cola's public affairs director, said the price was reasonable based on its own market research. 

But Sina’s poll showed 15.5 percent of the netizens said the price was reasonable with 45.95 percent regarding it as too low. Only 6.86 percent said the price was too high and the remaining 31.69 percent said they had no idea.

Qu Bing, the head of public affairs of the Huiyuan Group in Beijing, was quoted by Thursday’s Beijing Morning Post as saying there was no dispute over the price as the announcement was jointly made by the two parties. The Huiyuan brand would not be replaced, Qu added.

Coca-Cola also pledged to keep the Huiyuan brand and inject advanced technology into Huiyuan.

Unlike the overwhelming disapproval voiced by netizens, insiders were divided on the deal.  

相关链接：
可口可乐9月3日以24亿美元收购汇源果汁的消息不仅引发了市场各方对于A股市场估值的重估讨论，也带动了A股食品饮料板块的走强。

昨日，食品饮料暂时告别前几日的下跌阴霾，以1.66%的板块涨幅位居涨幅次席，板块中，维维股份、深深宝等个股更是以涨停板报收。

业内人士分析，可口可乐收购汇源的短期事件虽然难以对板块走势形成长期支撑，但就食品饮料行业本身而言，其弱周期性的特点决定行业长期前景看好。

汇源的比价效应

9月份前3个交易日，在板块跌幅榜中，食品饮料赫然在列，其中基金重仓股更是大幅下挫，其中，贵州茅台跌幅超10%；双汇发展跌幅超22%；张裕跌幅超16%。

对此，国海证券刘金沪表示，因为市场估值中枢下移、系统性风险释放，防御性品种的高溢价也有一定幅度限制。这是食品饮料下跌的主要原因。

业内人士分析，食品饮料昨日的表现除了“纠正”外，更多还是受到可口可乐收购汇源的消息带动。

“可口可乐的高溢价收购到是引起了市场各参与方对A股市场估值的重估讨论，必然会对A股市场的估值体系形成一定的冲击，从而有利于食品饮料行业的优质企业重新获得估值的契机。”渤海投资研究所的秦洪表示。他认为，上市公司的估值坐标不仅仅是市盈率、市净率等市场化的数据，而且还有产业布局、资产重置、渠道等这样的产业化数据。

银河证券董俊峰在报告中指出，可口可乐此次高PE溢价收购汇源反映了国内消费品市场龙头公司的巨大投资价值，也与A股的恐慌性下跌形成鲜明对比。尽管不能以此次收购报价估值水平判断A股食品饮料龙头上市公司估值水平是否合理，但实业界对公司的估值方法和分析角度值得学习。

外资并购或刚开始

尽管可口可乐的收购尚未得到商务部反垄断部门的批准，但市场人士认为，此次收购或许只是一个开始，并购将是跨国投资大势所趋，而在当前市场低迷之时，这种外资并购会更活跃。

有数据显示，今年年初至今，海外企业收购中国公司的跨境并购共有539宗，成交金额超过176亿美元，较去年同期增长49.8%。

同时，外资并购会更倾向于已有的下游品牌企业。美林的报告指出，国际品牌收购中国品牌，无非是想用最短时间，争取最多的市场占有率，故他们的收购对象，一定是一些下游业务企业。

本次可口可乐的并购也使一些国内的民族食品饮料企业有了不少的想象空间。然而，也有人士表示，这种事情具有较大偶然性，并不会局限在某一个行业；同时国内食品饮料行业中有些估值已经比较高，外资需要找到产业资本和金融资本的平衡点才会“出手”。

行业值得长期看好

渤海证券闫亚磊表示，作为消费类行业的食品饮料业具有弱周期性特点，防御性较好，从基本面来看，行业未来的增长比较明确，优质上市公司的盈利预期也不会发生太大偏差。

数据显示，今年前7月食品制造业和饮料制造业工业增加值增速较去年相比放缓。但7月单月该增速又有所回升，显示出前期通胀对这两个行业的负面影响有弱化的趋势。

分析人士也指出，“并不是所有食品饮料类的公司都值得长期看好，除了区分各细分子行业之外，上市公司的业绩优良与否也成为重要标准。”

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