中国经济改革发展之路
Economic Reform and Development the Chinese Way

作者介绍：厉以宁，北京大学教授、博士生导师。他的经济理论对我国30年来的经济改革与发展产生了深远影响。

内容简介：收选厉以宁教授的16篇论文，反映了作者改革开放以来的主要学术观点，精辟阐述中国经济改革中的重大议题等。资深翻译家凌原翻译，附经济学术语对照表。

我国当前社会就业问题的“结构性”。这种“结构性”就业问题要依靠发展教育和调整教育结构来解决
The “structural” nature of the employment problem can be solved by developing and restructuring education

从理论上说，任何一个国家的经济增长既可以通过增加劳动力数量来实现，也可以不通过增加劳动力数量，而通过增加对机器设备的投资，并相应地提高劳 动者的技术水平和熟练程度来实现。在经济增长过程中，由于物质生产部门采用节约劳动的新技术设备的结果，有可能减少对劳动力数量的需要。因此，在一定的人 口增长率条件下，经济增长本身并不能保证充分就业。物质生产部门在增加生产量的过程中究竟能够吸收多少人就业，不仅取决于这些部门的增长速度，而且取决于 这些部门采取什么样的经济增长途径。如果一国主要不是依靠增加劳动力数量，而是依靠新技术设备的采用和劳动力文化技术水平的提高来实现经济增长的话，物质 生产部门本身能吸收的劳动力将是有限的。
Theoretically speaking, any nation can grow its economy either by expanding its workforce or by investing more in machines and equipment and improving workers’ technical knowhow and skills. The adoption of labor-saving technology and equipment may help cut down the material production sector’s demand for workers in the course of economic growth. Consequently, given a constant population growth rate, economic growth itself cannot ensure full employment. The number of jobs to be created through output increase is determined not only by the rate of production expansion, but also by which approaches are adopted for such expansion. If a country develops its economy not by hiring more workers but by adopting new technology and equipment and improving workers’ cultural and technical proficiency, then the ability of its material production sector to absorb the workforce will be limited.

另一方面，一国经济增长过程也是一国经济结构变化的过程。在物质生产领域内，必然有些部门或行业衰落下去，甚至被淘汰，另一些部门或行业则不断兴 起、发展。物质生产领域与非物质生产领域在国民经济中的比重也会发生变化，非物质生产领域的一些部门的发展及其在国民经济中所占比重的增大，是经济增长的 不可避免的趋势。在衰落和被淘汰的部门就业的劳动者，随着国民经济结构的变化，需要另谋职业，转移工作部门。在新兴的物质生产部门中，尤其是在日益发展的 非物质生产部门中，劳动力则往往是不足的。因此，一国经济增长过程之所以能够增加就业，从长期趋势来看，主要依靠新兴物质生产部门的发展和各种非物质生产 部门的发展。
On the other hand, economic growth also entails a process of change in a nation’s economic structure. The inexorable law of material production is that some old manufacturing industries decline or are phased out while new ones rise and grow. The ratio between material and nonmaterial production in the national economy is changing as well. It is an irrevocable trend in economic growth for some nonmaterial production industries to grow in strength along with their shares in the national economy. With the national economic structure changing constantly, those working in languishing or failed industries need to find new jobs elsewhere. The rising industries in material production, and particularly the burgeoning industries in nonmaterial production, often run short of workforce. Thus in the long term, the emergence and growth of new industries in both material and nonmaterial production are major reasons why a nation can increase employment amidst economic growth.

一国经济结构的变化不仅包括部门结构的变化，而且包括地区结构的变化。国内原来经济较不发达的地区在经济增长过程中可能以较快的速度增长，而原来 经济比较发达的地区经济增长速度则可能减缓，或者以相对较慢的速度增长。这样，经济增长率较慢的地区，或者经济增长率虽高但主要依靠增加技术设备投资来实 现经济增长的地区，劳动力将会过多，这些人也必须另找就业岗位。而经济增长率较高的地区，特别是原来劳动力不足的地区，则有可能吸收就业者。
The changing economic structure of a nation implies changes in both industrial and geo-economic structures. In China, underdeveloped regions may achieve a relatively higher economic growth rate, whereas developed regions may slow down, or grow at a relatively lower pace. Regions that either suffer a low growth rate or maintain a high growth rate mainly by spending more on technology and equipment will produce a glut of factory layoffs that will have to seek employment elsewhere, whereas regions with a high growth rate, those with a labor shortage in particular, are likely to accept the job-hunters.

从上述这些情况来分析，可以清楚地看到，一国经济增长过程中所遇到的社会就业问题，主要是“结构性”就业问题。这就是说，社会就业问题能否顺利地 得到解决，要看劳动力的结构（不同技术水平的劳动力、不同工种的劳动力、不同地区的劳动力在劳动力总数中的构成）与经济增长速度是否适应，与经济结构的变 化是否适应，要看劳动力本身在技术方面是否符合经济增长的要求。在劳动力结构与经济增长速度、经济结构变化不适应的情况下，在劳动者的技术水平不符合经济 增长要求的情况下，经济增长过程中失业与职位空缺的并存将是不可避免的。
These situations prove clearly that the employment problem confronting a country in the process of economic growth is mainly “structural.” That is to say, the success or failure in tackling this problem hinges on whether the workforce structure – the makeup of workers of different trades, industries and locations in a region’s total number of workers – is commensurate with local economic growth rates and economic structural changes, and whether the workforce itself can meet the technical needs of local economic growth. When the structure of a workforce does not match the local economic growth rate and the changing local economic structure, and when workers’ technical proficiency level falls short of the needs of economic growth, unemployment will unavoidably exist alongside a surplus of unfilled job vacancies.

失业与职位空缺并存，就是说，一方面是“人找事”，另一方面是“事找人”。经济增长过程中为什么会有失业？这是因为在经济增长主要靠提高劳动生产 率来实现，而人口增长率又比较高时，新达到就业年龄的劳动力很可能找不到工作。即使不考虑新达到就业年龄的劳动力，那么增长率相对缓慢或停滞的部门和地区 也会游离出一批劳动力。特别是对发展中国家来说，情况更为显著，因为在这样的国家中，农业一直在国民经济中占有重要地位，而农业中原来的劳动生产率一直是 较低的。工业化过程中，从农业中游离出来的大量劳动力在社会上找不到可以容纳他们的工作岗位。因此，失业（包括隐蔽失业）是不可能避免的。
This paradoxical coexistence of unemployment and superfluous vacancies means that while people are looking frantically for jobs, many jobs are left unfilled. How is it that people lose jobs while the economy keeps growing? The answer is that if economic growth is achieved for the most part by raising labor productivity, while the population growth rate remains relatively high, those coming of employment age are likely to fail to land suitable jobs. Even if these people are a nonfactor, industries and regions with slow or stagnant growth lay off workers. This is particularly true of developing countries, where agriculture – known for its low labor productivity – often dominates the national economy. In the industrialization process, large numbers of villagers who have just quit farming may find it hard to land jobs. Unemployment – concealed unemployment included – thus becomes unavoidable.

  编辑推荐：

 厉以宁经典论文首次结集出版英文版，海外版已授权剑桥大学出版社

 资深翻译家凌原翻译，附经济学术语对照表。

 《中国经济改革发展之路》（英汉对照版）

 厉以宁（著） 凌原（译）

 外语教学与研究出版社