科学家表示，太阳辐射的周期性减弱可能导致北美洲和欧洲部分地区出现异常“冷冬”。这项科学发现可以改进长期天气预报，帮助各国准备好应对风雪。

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Sarah Ineson
UK Met Office
Nature Geoscience
Northern Hemisphere

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A cyclical drop in the sun's radiation can trigger unusually cold winters in parts of North America and Europe, scientists say, a finding that could improve long-range forecasts and help countries prepare for blizzards. Scientists have known for a long time that the sun has an 11-year cycle during which radiation measured by sunspots on the surface reaches a peak then falls. But pinning down a clear link to weather has proved harder. "Our research confirms the observed link between solar variability and regional winter climate," lead author Sarah Ineson of the UK Met Office told the reporters in an email. The study was published in the journal Nature Geoscience on Monday. Her team focused on data from the recent solar minimum during 2008-10, a period of unusual calm for the sun and intense winters in the United States and parts of Europe that shut down air travel and disrupted businesses. The researchers found that a reduction in ultraviolet radiation from the sun can affect high-altitude wind patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, triggering cold winters. "While UV levels won't tell us what the day-to-day weather will do, they provide the exciting prospect of improved forecasts for winter conditions for months and even years ahead. These forecasts play an important role in long-term contingency planning," said Ineson, a climate scientist.
科学家表示，太阳辐射的周期性减弱可能导致北美洲和欧洲部分地区出现异常“冷冬”。这项科学发现可以改进长期天气预报，帮助各国准备好应对风雪。 早前研究发现，太阳的活动周期为11年，在此期间，以太阳表面黑子为衡量标准的太阳辐射达到峰年和谷年。但证实太阳活动周期与天气之间的明确联系一直存在困难。 研究负责人、英国气象局的莎拉•伊尼森在电邮中告诉记者：“对已观测到的太阳活动变化与地区冬季气候之间的联系，研究予以了证实。” 研究结果本周一发表在英国《自然—地球科学》杂志上。 研究小组对最近的一次太阳活动谷年，也就是2008年至2010年的数据进行了分析。这段时间太阳活动出奇平静，而美国出现极端寒冬，欧洲部分地区还曾关闭机场，这也打乱了经济活动。 研究人员发现，太阳紫外线辐射水平的降低可以影响北半球高纬度的环流形态，导致冷冬。 气候学家伊尼森说：“紫外线水平无法预测每日的天气状况，但可以使我们对未来数月甚至数年的冬季气候预测更加准确。这种预测可以使我们在较长时期内对极端天气做好准备。”