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翻译：Daniel Wang

Heads in the sand?
对危机视而不见？

For the last six week the financial crisis has smashed world markets, destroyed trillions in wealth and in some cases pushed countries to wall.It has dominated headlines, at times making the elections both here and in the US seem secondary in importance.September and October 2008 will go down in history as two of the most volatile and extraordinary months in the world's economic history.

在最近的6个星期里，金融危机在全球市场肆虐，数万亿的财富化为乌有，多个国家更因此而陷入困境。此类消息占据各大媒体新闻头条，一时间美国大选行情不管是在美国还是在新西兰均退居次要位置。2008年的九月和十月将被记入全球经济史，因为在这两个月里，全球市场巨幅波动而显得格外引人注目。

For many New Zealanders watching these world events I suspect it has been worrying but also a little perplexing.Because while we know what is happening is bad and it that will affect us...we don't know yet how bad it is actually going to get in New Zealand?

对于大多数关注此次危机的新西兰人来说，他们在担忧的同时肯定也存在着种种疑惑。因为我们了解正在发生的事情是如此之坏，而且它们最终将对我们的生活产生影响。我们不清楚未来在新西兰的恶性事件会达到什么样的程度。

Some Kiwis don't seem worried at all...I have heard people say "oh I'm over the credit crisis" like it is something very trivial that isn't actually 'real'.I think there is a good reason for this attitude. Unemployment is very low in New Zealand - 3.9% in fact - and even though we are in recession and lending by banks has tightened there haven't been massive job losses yet.

但有些人却对此丝毫不在乎......曾听到有人说，"噢，危机已经过去了。"就好像是不值得我们关注的琐碎事儿一样。我想也许有许多可以让我们抱以此态度的理由：新西兰的失业率非常低，确切地说是3.9%；而且尽管我们已处于经济衰退且银行借贷情况已有所紧缩，但到目前为止并没有大量工作机会损失的情况发生。

However I wonder if this confidence in the employment market is going to take a big hit next week with the release of the Household Labour Force Survey and unemployment rate.According to recent business confidence surveys, businesses are reassessing future earnings growth given the slowdown in world demand and are having to make hard calls on staffing levels.Sixty four percent of those polled in the New Zealand Herald's Mood of the Boardroom Survey for example say they will cut jobs next year.

但是，我现在所考虑的是，在下周家庭劳动力调查数据和失业率数据结果公布之后，就业市场的信心是否会遭受巨大打击？根据最近所公布的消费者信心调查数据显示，因全球需求放缓以及国内安置就业的压力增加，新西兰经济处于进一步衰退之中。例如，在参与新西兰先驱报关于经济前景调查的所有投票者中，有64%的被调查者表示下一年就业率会下降。

Given that, it's not a surprise that both political parties are promising some relief for those who do lose their jobs because of the downturn.This support can carry some so-called moral hazard risks.But I think the move is worthwhile. It's necessary for maintaining confidence and ensuring people can keep paying mortgages while under short term stress.No doubt the banks will be happy too, the last thing they want is people unable to pay mortgages.

The good news in all of this is that we are coming off a very low base - 3.9% is virtually full employment and so far the worst predictions I've seen are that it will spike to 6.5% next year.That will be painful and is not great, but is still not massive by historical standards...

With a lower dollar, a more diversified export sector and a solid Crown balance sheet...we will weather this storm better than many nations.But make no mistake, 2009 won't be an easy year.

因纽元汇率的降低，我们的出口部门将因此获益而改善我们的国际收支平衡表，我们将比其它国家更好地度过此次金融风暴。但是，毫无疑问，2009年将是不平凡的一年。

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