Earthquake Prediction Research

地震预测的研究

Presently what is called prediction is not really that. It is simply scientific research on understanding the workings of earthquakes. There is not sufficient historical data on which to base the number of hypotheses that have been proposed for earthquake predictions and, therefore, there is no way to judge the ultimate success or failure of such predictions. It would be difficult to explain to the public the difference between scientific research studies and actual predictions. There will be difficulty in understanding and it would be even more confusing.

现在所谓的预测并不是实际意义上的预测，这只是单纯的依靠科学研究对地震的物理情况的进一步的理解。历史上的数据并不足以确定地震的预测是否准确，因此， 谁也无法确定预测是否准确。想要向公众解释清楚科学研究和实际上预测的区别并不是一件容易的事，理解上的困难会更令人更困惑。

For example, the present research efforts are directed toward the prediction of the numerous small earthquakes (magnitude 3 and 4) that occur frequently. By predicting the smaller earthquakes and by understanding the earthquake process that is taking place, it is believed that the long-term goal of predicting large, destructive earthquakes will be achieved. Thus researchers install dense nets of seismograph stations along active sections of active faults. Such networks are used to establish detailed studies of the pattern of seismic activity in respect to both the location of the earthquakes and the time of their occurrence. By so doing, researchers attempt to identify "gaps" or anomalies, in the pattern of seismic activity. Numerous types of instruments and methods are used for earthquake prediction. These instruments measure tilts int the ground's surface, as well as changes in the magnetic field near active faults . Usually these changes precede the occurrence of some earthquakes.

举个例子，现在的地震研究旨在预测出比较频繁的小地震（里氏3级至4级之间）。人们相信，通过预测这些小地震，了解地震的具体过程对预测大地震、毁灭性地 震这一长远目标能起到很大的作用。因此研究者们在地震活跃区大量安置了地震监测网点，形成一个监测网络，通过监测地震活动的地点及持续时间来对地震进行具 体的研究。通过这种方法，研究者们就可以了解地震活动的异常现象。他们还用各种各样的仪器和方法，通过测量地震前发生的地球物理上的变化，如地表倾斜度和 活性断层附近的磁场变化，对地震进行预测。

In addition to the field investigations, laboratory and theoretical studies are also being carried out by governmental organizations and various universities in China and throughout the world. These investigations include studies of the mechanism of earthquake faulting of various rock types under conditions of high temperature and pressure, and detailed investigations of ground swelling, otherwise known as "dilatancy", which precede an earthquake. Computer simulations of the conditions of the earth are being made as another means of obtaining patterns of earthquake processes in the hope of learning more about properties of the earth that control earthquakes.

除了对地面的监测，政府机构和世界各地的大学也从实验和理论的角度进行研究。这些调查包括不同岩石在高温高压下的地震断层原理和对地隆（即膨胀性岩石）这种预示地震的现象的具体调查。人们还通过计算机模拟地震发生时的情景，期望通过这一方法了解更多引起地震的土壤的性质。