科学60秒:模型预测之下的战争与和平
来源：沪江听写酷
2011-07-02 10:00
Oh _______1_______. Or so it may seem. Because many social networks eventually evolve into one of just two states. We either all get along. Or an unbridgeable divide develops. And a new mathematical model can predict which it will be,findings ______2______ in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Consider a relationship triangle. Arthur and Carl don’t like each other. But Bill is friendly with them both. Bill will probably try to convince Arthur and Carl to get along. But Arthur and Carl are telling Bill that the other guy’s no good. You don’t need to be a math ______3______ to see that, as time goes on, either everyone will be friends or Bill is going to have to pick a side.
Now picture a big network made of these triangles. Which is what scientists did in their computer model. And they found that this theoretical social network produced either global harmony or ______4_____, depending on the initial triangles. The model even predicted almost exactly the identities of all the Allied and Axis forces during World War II. So one way to prevent global war may be to ______5_____ enough Arthurs and Carls.
【视听版科学小组荣誉出品】
Consider a relationship triangle. Arthur and Carl don’t like each other. But Bill is friendly with them both. Bill will probably try to convince Arthur and Carl to get along. But Arthur and Carl are telling Bill that the other guy’s no good. You don’t need to be a math ______3______ to see that, as time goes on, either everyone will be friends or Bill is going to have to pick a side.
Now picture a big network made of these triangles. Which is what scientists did in their computer model. And they found that this theoretical social network produced either global harmony or ______4_____, depending on the initial triangles. The model even predicted almost exactly the identities of all the Allied and Axis forces during World War II. So one way to prevent global war may be to ______5_____ enough Arthurs and Carls.
【视听版科学小组荣誉出品】
what a tangled web we weave
laid out
whiz
all-out war
forge friendships between
模型预测之下的战争与和平
噢，我们织就出了一个多么杂乱无章的社交关系网。啊！抑或它本身就很复杂？因为很多社交网络最终都会演变成两种状态的其中一种-我们要么和谐相处，要么彼此之间产生一道不可逾越的鸿沟。一个新的数学模型可以预测出最终状态，此项发现刊登在《美国国家科学院院刊》上。
思索一个三角关系。亚瑟和卡尔彼此不喜欢对方。但比尔跟两人都挺要好。比尔可能会劝说亚瑟和卡尔，让他们好好相处。而亚瑟和卡尔都跟比尔说对方的坏话。你不必是个数学高手，就可以很容易得出结论，随着时间的推移，要么三个人都不要成为朋友，要么比尔就不得不选择其中一方作为朋友。
现在构想出一个由这些三角关系组成的大网络，这就是科学家们在电脑模型中建立的网络关系。他们发现这个假想的社交网不是使全球和平稳定，就是会带来全面战争的爆发，结果取决于初始的三角关系。此模型甚至准确地预测出第二次世界大战中同盟国和轴心国的特性。所以一个防止全球战争的方法也许是加深“亚瑟”们和“卡尔”们之间的友谊吧。